According to ABI Research, the saturated global TV market is on the cusp of mainstream 4K TV adoption, as consumer seek higher resolutions, larger screen sizes and connected and integrated applications and services.

The analyst forecasts 4K TV shipments will reach 233 million in 2024, while growing a 13% CAGR. Looking further into the future, 8K should prove to be the next big thing, as vendors including Samsung, Sony, LG and TCL have already announced such sets, if at currently exorbitant pricetags limiting sales volumes, at least for the foreseeable future. However price points should decline over the next several years, just as 4K TVs have.

The biggest barrier to 8K TV at the moment is a lack of content and distribution models. Currently the only country with a form of 8K broadcast is Japan, although the Korean Broadcasting Corporation (KBS) is working on an 8K broadcast. Rakuten plans to offer 8K streaming in late 2019, even if the limited adoption of 8K TV sets fails to provide incentive for 8K broadcasts.

Such broadcasts also involve challenges with file size. Versatile Video Coding (VVC) offers 34% higher efficiency over HEVC, but remains in the process of standardisation. VVC should play a "vital" role in the 8K TV market once standardisation is complete in 2020, and 8K should gain further momentum as the industry addresses its various challenges.

“For now, 4K will be the dominant format of the flat panel TV market, and of the content ecosystem as a result," ABI concludes. "4K TV household penetration will reach slightly more than half of the TV households in mature markets, and with penetration still relatively low in emerging markets, there is significant room for 4K market growth in the years to come."

Go Over 233 Million 4K TVs to Ship in 2024, with 8K on the Horizon (ABI Research)