Walk around the halls of CES 2013 and you might fail to find one particular technology-- 3DTV. Has it been sidelined in favour of the new kids on the TV block, 4K and OLED? The answer might just be... yes.
The emphasis on alternative technologies makes sense. Since 3DTV failed to stop (or even simply slow down) the drop in global TV shipments and sales, vendors got to look for their next great hope.
According to NPD DisplaySearch 2012 TV shipments are down by -6% due to general tough economic conditions, with TV prices falling at "marginal rates," while 2013 shipments are expected to remain flat before entering a period of "gradual" growth as conditions improve and prices decline further.
The DisplaySearch graph (pictured) shows an interesting pattern-- TVs show decent growth during the 2008-2010 period (thanks to the HDTV boom) before declining sharply during 2011-2012. And even if 2013 sees a return to growth shipments will never reach 2010 levels, never mind pre-2007.
So the industry is pinning its expectations on 4K LCD TVs. Each has a gimmick of sorts in order to distinguish each 4K offering from the rest. Panasonic concentrates on smart TV features through a new "My Home Screen" feature (on select Viera models models). Sharp goes for the eco-conscious customer with energy-efficient IGZO panel technology, as well as THX certification with the ICC Purios.
Sony returns to its audio roots with a pair of Bravia sets (XBR-55K900A and XBR-65X900A) using "magnetic fluid" as a replacement to conventional speaker dampers to reportedly impressive effect.
Current TV leader Samsung combines fancy industrial design and sheer size with the 85-inch UN85S9, even if Westinghouse beats it to the "biggest TV at CES 2013" title with the gigantic (if far more conventional looking) 110-inch Qx110.
The second display technology hope for an ailing industry is OLED, even if the only major CES 2013 announcements concerning the technology involves the "curved" TVs from Samsung and LG. However DisplaySearch predicts low volumes and high prices for OLED TVs, at least until 2016.
“OLED TV was prominently featured during the previous two CES shows as the next-generation TV display technology, but the lack of market launch so far has caused several set makers to start emphasizing 4K×2K resolution TVs for premium market segments,” the analyst remarks.
Ultimately the take-off of either 4K or OLED depends on one factor-- compelling reasons for customers to upgrade. 4K TV demands broadcasting technology that is still in its infancy, while OLED improves on current content (when compared to LCD) at too high a price. Meanwhile smart TV might either be too gimmicky for customers to bother or simply not a replacement for games consoles and their ilk-- and the failure of 3DTV shows what happens to gimmicks.
The 3DTV fad lasted all of 3 years. How long will 4K and OLED last? Will it be a race to size and price, or a search for the unique selling points customers will go for? The answers lie in the next few years...
Go 4K LCD TVs Expected to Outpace OLED TV Shipments (NPD DisplaySearch)
Go Feel the Beauty with Bravia
Go Westinghouse
